* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912010 06/01/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 20 23 21 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 19 20 23 21 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 3 2 2 7 12 12 19 21 30 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 10 10 7 3 1 0 0 0 -5 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 122 168 175 142 144 174 255 260 274 269 264 269 262 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.0 26.1 25.2 24.4 23.9 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 140 138 139 139 132 123 113 105 99 95 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 56 54 57 52 50 46 44 39 35 32 30 24 23 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -47 -49 -55 -48 -44 -33 -30 -27 -14 -1 -6 -14 -9 200 MB DIV 42 31 30 41 32 52 32 36 27 13 -5 -30 -32 LAND (KM) 1675 1700 1730 1760 1796 1844 1867 1871 1870 1883 1920 1936 1965 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.4 12.1 12.9 13.7 14.5 15.1 15.7 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.5 119.4 120.3 121.2 122.6 123.9 124.9 125.7 126.6 127.6 128.5 129.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 26 25 25 28 33 31 14 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 27. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -21. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912010 INVEST 06/01/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912010 INVEST 06/01/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY