* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912010 06/01/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 23 24 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 23 24 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 5 1 0 1 5 11 12 20 25 28 31 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 10 9 5 4 1 0 2 -2 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 134 156 339 187 20 222 278 256 253 260 269 270 246 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.6 25.7 24.9 24.2 23.7 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 142 140 138 138 134 128 118 109 102 96 92 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 55 58 54 52 48 46 44 37 33 31 26 22 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -58 -55 -55 -49 -34 -25 -17 -2 14 18 19 23 200 MB DIV 39 44 44 48 52 56 48 22 2 1 0 10 4 LAND (KM) 1666 1689 1718 1742 1770 1798 1801 1778 1769 1781 1790 1787 1760 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.9 12.7 13.5 14.3 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.6 119.5 120.4 121.2 122.6 123.7 124.3 125.0 125.8 126.4 126.9 127.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 10 10 9 8 8 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 25 22 22 24 20 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 26. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -10. -16. -22. -27. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912010 INVEST 06/01/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912010 INVEST 06/01/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY