* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912010 06/02/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 26 33 32 36 33 41 37 38 29 36 33 35 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 4 6 6 4 2 2 -1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 257 261 273 278 273 292 295 323 323 328 324 319 316 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 27.9 27.7 26.5 25.8 26.1 26.7 27.5 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 148 148 145 136 134 120 112 115 120 129 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 136 137 134 125 122 109 101 103 107 116 118 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 14 14 13 12 10 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 50 54 53 50 53 53 57 61 60 53 51 52 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -45 -58 -61 -68 -98 -106 -121 -121 -116 -83 -78 -83 200 MB DIV 16 10 2 19 1 -4 1 -5 10 -27 -14 -12 -30 LAND (KM) 183 199 156 72 33 11 106 362 526 528 429 303 245 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.9 20.4 21.2 21.9 23.3 24.8 25.5 25.5 24.6 23.6 22.3 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 85.7 85.4 85.0 84.3 83.6 81.7 79.5 76.6 74.0 71.8 70.1 69.0 68.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 10 10 12 13 13 11 10 8 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 80 82 85 72 55 16 35 2 0 1 11 26 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -13. -18. -24. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -9. -15. -19. -23. -25. -26. -26. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912010 INVEST 06/02/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912010 INVEST 06/02/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL912010 INVEST 06/02/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY