* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/12/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 28 33 44 55 67 73 75 75 73 73 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 28 33 44 55 67 73 75 75 73 73 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 32 38 44 49 52 54 54 54 SHEAR (KT) 10 5 4 7 10 12 13 11 15 13 14 14 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 -1 -2 -2 -8 -6 -7 -7 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 60 101 76 51 94 109 135 159 166 207 207 261 259 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 142 139 138 135 135 138 145 148 150 153 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 156 151 146 144 139 138 142 150 154 154 156 158 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -52.2 -53.4 -52.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 73 76 74 72 71 67 64 62 60 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 32 27 21 18 13 13 -3 -18 -38 -31 -18 4 200 MB DIV 79 96 88 109 145 146 155 110 65 44 33 13 7 LAND (KM) 1368 1345 1279 1242 1222 1240 1221 1033 870 737 653 632 460 LAT (DEG N) 6.3 6.6 6.8 7.2 7.5 8.2 8.9 9.5 10.1 10.7 11.2 11.5 11.8 LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.4 33.8 35.1 36.4 38.8 41.2 43.6 46.3 49.1 51.9 54.4 56.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 14 13 13 12 12 13 14 14 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 53 50 39 39 40 38 37 45 65 71 80 85 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 11. 10. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 13. 24. 35. 47. 53. 55. 55. 53. 53. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/12/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 58% is 4.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 38% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/12/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY