* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/13/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 41 47 60 70 75 76 73 68 63 57 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 41 47 60 70 75 76 73 68 63 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 38 48 58 67 70 69 66 60 53 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 8 2 6 8 7 12 14 19 27 31 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 1 -1 -3 3 2 -2 -1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 125 107 71 119 24 46 187 202 213 238 233 262 248 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 140 137 134 131 129 129 134 137 138 139 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 146 141 137 133 130 129 134 138 136 134 131 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.1 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 78 76 74 76 75 72 72 62 60 60 53 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 37 33 25 22 24 16 9 -10 -17 -17 -18 -8 -11 200 MB DIV 105 99 116 150 136 136 115 71 27 -6 2 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 1346 1325 1293 1285 1289 1346 1370 1267 1197 1115 1066 1001 915 LAT (DEG N) 6.4 6.8 7.2 7.7 8.1 9.1 10.4 11.7 12.9 13.9 14.8 15.5 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 31.9 33.1 34.2 35.3 36.3 38.3 40.5 42.7 45.1 47.8 50.9 53.1 54.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 13 10 7 HEAT CONTENT 55 43 36 36 35 31 21 22 33 42 53 63 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 16. 22. 35. 45. 50. 51. 48. 43. 38. 32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/13/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 74% is 5.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 64% is 8.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 47% is 9.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 6.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/13/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY