* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/13/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 44 55 62 68 69 69 68 67 64 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 44 55 62 68 69 69 68 67 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 59 63 64 63 62 61 SHEAR (KT) 5 8 5 6 5 7 4 10 14 19 16 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 4 -2 -1 -6 -4 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 52 98 83 12 36 181 206 201 251 258 292 239 257 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 136 135 132 129 132 137 140 140 143 147 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 145 141 139 135 130 132 138 141 138 140 145 148 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 80 76 74 75 73 68 63 59 57 56 54 54 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 19 15 10 2 0 -5 -17 -24 -15 -19 -13 -7 2 200 MB DIV 126 149 143 127 104 91 46 27 -3 -7 -14 -7 19 LAND (KM) 1246 1240 1250 1277 1317 1309 1175 1060 952 900 867 801 591 LAT (DEG N) 6.7 7.3 7.8 8.4 8.9 10.0 10.8 11.5 12.1 12.8 13.3 13.6 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 34.2 35.4 36.5 37.7 38.8 40.9 43.0 45.3 47.7 50.0 52.2 54.2 56.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 12 11 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 38 36 32 23 34 49 60 60 67 74 92 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 19. 30. 37. 43. 44. 44. 43. 42. 39. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/13/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 60% is 7.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 42% is 8.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 5.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/13/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY