* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/13/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 44 53 60 64 66 66 66 65 63 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 44 53 60 64 66 66 66 65 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 34 41 49 54 57 57 56 57 58 SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 5 6 5 8 17 18 20 9 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -4 -5 1 0 -4 -8 -2 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 113 85 40 47 125 208 188 224 246 274 277 268 267 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 135 134 132 132 139 142 142 145 149 153 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 140 138 135 133 141 144 142 144 149 153 153 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 75 72 73 72 69 68 57 59 54 57 54 56 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 16 8 -1 -1 1 -7 -24 -23 -13 -7 -4 11 16 200 MB DIV 173 152 134 104 105 62 27 15 9 2 -6 16 11 LAND (KM) 1208 1221 1253 1297 1299 1174 1046 929 860 819 732 523 392 LAT (DEG N) 7.0 7.6 8.2 8.8 9.3 10.3 11.1 11.7 12.4 12.9 13.4 13.7 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 35.5 36.8 38.0 39.2 40.4 42.6 45.0 47.5 50.0 52.4 54.8 57.2 59.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 39 32 29 32 52 62 62 72 77 93 85 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 29. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 19. 28. 35. 39. 41. 41. 41. 40. 38. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/13/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 133.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 69% is 5.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 59% is 7.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 42% is 8.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 06/13/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/13/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY