* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/14/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 42 48 51 53 53 52 51 48 46 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 42 48 51 53 53 52 51 48 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 31 33 39 43 44 43 42 41 40 40 SHEAR (KT) 6 3 4 8 14 12 16 22 22 24 23 27 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -5 -6 3 0 -3 0 -3 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 110 52 48 159 179 222 210 238 260 275 252 271 251 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 131 130 129 133 138 139 140 145 148 151 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 133 131 130 133 137 137 139 146 147 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.8 -53.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 70 71 63 60 53 54 52 51 51 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 18 10 5 2 2 -4 -18 -19 -13 -5 -2 -4 -11 200 MB DIV 131 110 89 95 93 27 5 2 5 -11 -11 -11 0 LAND (KM) 1283 1325 1356 1337 1277 1179 1062 977 947 872 667 595 483 LAT (DEG N) 8.4 9.0 9.5 10.2 10.8 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.8 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 37.6 38.6 39.6 40.7 41.8 44.2 46.7 49.0 51.3 53.9 56.8 59.3 61.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 36 32 24 22 21 34 49 54 59 68 72 95 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 17. 23. 26. 28. 28. 27. 26. 23. 21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/14/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 06/14/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/14/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY