* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/14/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 44 46 46 47 49 51 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 41 44 46 46 47 49 51 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 36 36 37 37 39 43 46 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 9 9 17 19 20 15 17 14 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -3 -1 -2 0 -1 0 0 -3 1 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 85 134 171 188 201 209 239 242 273 248 282 224 245 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 137 139 139 141 146 151 151 156 160 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 139 140 141 140 141 147 153 152 158 161 160 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 9 700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 68 64 62 57 56 56 56 57 58 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 10 7 4 0 -7 -22 -21 -15 -2 0 14 28 46 200 MB DIV 71 85 87 50 22 10 -17 -9 -34 9 -2 13 18 LAND (KM) 1362 1286 1195 1119 1060 958 887 851 644 428 333 366 383 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.5 12.3 12.9 13.3 13.4 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 39.9 41.3 42.6 44.0 45.3 47.9 50.5 53.0 55.7 58.4 61.1 63.8 66.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 30 42 49 59 60 72 86 84 82 63 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 25. 30. 34. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 21. 21. 22. 24. 26. 27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/14/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 06/14/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/14/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY