* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/14/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 34 36 37 39 40 42 44 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 34 36 37 39 40 42 44 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 30 30 30 31 33 35 38 SHEAR (KT) 9 12 10 11 13 17 20 22 14 18 16 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 -1 0 0 -2 1 1 1 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 129 171 192 206 213 238 251 269 277 264 277 286 298 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 136 138 140 139 143 148 151 155 160 160 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 138 138 141 142 139 143 147 152 156 161 161 156 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 12 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 60 59 58 54 58 57 59 58 62 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 9 6 -2 -12 -21 -24 -25 -13 -1 0 20 34 47 200 MB DIV 71 84 40 11 13 -11 -2 2 0 -3 8 -12 4 LAND (KM) 1333 1233 1150 1089 1035 943 899 791 562 386 388 403 333 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.2 12.9 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.2 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 40.9 42.4 43.8 45.2 46.6 49.3 51.8 54.3 56.9 59.6 62.4 65.0 67.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 14 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 25 38 47 54 56 65 73 94 87 84 61 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/14/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 06/14/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/14/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY