* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922010 06/14/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 34 36 36 35 36 36 38 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 34 36 36 35 36 36 38 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 18 17 16 SHEAR (KT) 15 17 16 13 13 20 17 15 15 18 17 19 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 -1 2 -1 -1 -1 -6 -8 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 86 90 101 102 96 117 128 112 110 115 129 124 128 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 147 146 144 144 142 140 138 138 134 130 126 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 72 73 70 68 65 61 59 60 60 61 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 61 55 55 49 41 49 42 41 41 42 41 49 41 200 MB DIV 52 42 42 43 52 55 48 66 46 24 20 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 522 531 541 555 573 611 677 803 919 997 1126 1302 1515 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 14.9 14.7 14.3 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.2 105.6 105.9 106.4 106.9 107.9 109.2 110.9 112.6 114.3 116.3 118.4 120.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 51 49 48 46 42 28 24 20 20 18 7 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 14. 16. 16. 15. 16. 16. 18. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922010 INVEST 06/14/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922010 INVEST 06/14/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED