* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/15/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 29 30 29 28 26 22 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 28 29 29 30 29 28 26 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 25 24 24 23 22 20 SHEAR (KT) 11 13 11 11 16 23 22 19 23 28 24 35 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 0 -1 0 -1 2 -2 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 166 202 211 216 220 247 261 268 255 261 244 269 258 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 134 133 134 137 138 142 147 148 149 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 133 132 131 133 133 137 141 141 140 142 140 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 67 65 62 61 60 59 59 58 57 56 55 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -4 -15 -21 -25 -22 -17 -10 -18 -10 -6 -1 -13 200 MB DIV 72 41 27 9 5 -20 -3 0 12 15 18 12 20 LAND (KM) 1286 1232 1191 1169 1145 1110 1095 1067 931 837 801 645 464 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.9 13.4 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 42.1 43.3 44.4 45.5 46.5 48.5 50.4 52.4 54.4 56.3 58.0 59.6 61.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 26 32 35 42 42 55 59 60 52 59 55 61 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):306/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -3. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/15/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 06/15/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/15/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY