* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922010 06/15/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 27 27 27 25 24 21 20 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 27 27 27 25 24 21 20 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 14 13 10 11 15 18 14 11 12 13 14 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -1 0 -2 0 0 -2 0 -2 3 -5 SHEAR DIR 97 108 107 99 93 130 129 115 119 146 151 160 154 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.1 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.0 24.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 145 143 141 138 134 128 127 123 114 111 115 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 76 77 74 71 67 67 60 60 57 57 53 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 60 58 45 42 54 55 38 50 50 48 46 44 28 200 MB DIV 40 39 32 47 51 54 47 22 10 -1 -10 -7 4 LAND (KM) 488 488 488 486 492 507 591 725 777 895 1043 1240 1474 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.5 16.6 16.2 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.1 105.5 105.8 106.3 106.7 107.7 109.2 111.0 113.0 115.2 117.4 119.9 122.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 49 45 42 36 30 18 11 4 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 1. 0. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922010 INVEST 06/15/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922010 INVEST 06/15/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY