* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/15/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 17 18 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 17 18 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 13 17 18 20 20 25 24 31 33 43 40 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 2 0 2 1 0 -3 -6 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 208 231 232 251 254 260 269 259 264 253 267 264 278 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 134 135 136 138 141 145 145 144 145 148 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 132 132 132 132 134 137 136 134 134 137 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 63 57 57 54 56 56 57 55 56 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -21 -24 -25 -22 -20 -22 -29 -18 -19 -15 -11 4 200 MB DIV -3 6 10 1 -17 5 0 0 0 -10 -4 -7 20 LAND (KM) 1263 1241 1218 1201 1199 1202 1172 1061 975 918 748 571 394 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.7 16.4 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 43.6 44.7 45.8 46.9 47.9 49.8 51.8 53.6 55.4 57.0 58.6 60.3 62.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 29 36 39 37 47 56 59 37 45 44 48 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -12. -17. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/15/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 06/15/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/15/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY