* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922010 06/15/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 29 31 34 33 33 31 33 32 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 29 31 34 33 33 31 33 32 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 17 16 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 10 15 18 15 10 11 14 11 20 22 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 -3 1 0 -6 -1 -4 -5 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 97 78 82 110 129 125 98 104 118 109 132 133 133 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.3 26.1 26.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 141 141 139 136 132 130 126 125 125 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 72 66 65 68 61 60 57 59 54 55 56 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 8 6 7 6 7 6 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 45 40 47 53 45 32 31 46 44 47 41 32 35 200 MB DIV 40 40 46 46 50 72 51 41 16 14 -7 -3 -24 LAND (KM) 482 492 508 531 555 660 811 881 986 1135 1329 1537 1736 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.5 15.2 14.6 13.8 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.2 106.7 107.3 107.9 109.5 111.4 113.3 115.2 117.1 119.1 121.2 123.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 42 38 33 27 20 17 12 13 4 0 0 0 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 2. 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 11. 14. 13. 13. 11. 13. 12. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922010 INVEST 06/15/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922010 INVEST 06/15/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY