* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932010 06/15/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 28 31 42 53 61 65 65 64 64 63 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 28 31 42 53 61 65 65 64 64 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 35 37 37 37 36 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 4 3 4 3 7 10 11 16 16 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -3 0 2 1 -3 -1 0 0 -2 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 37 43 53 263 308 74 101 84 93 87 115 107 130 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.6 29.0 28.3 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 166 164 161 154 147 141 136 131 128 127 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 8 9 9 9 6 5 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 79 82 79 77 82 79 78 78 77 72 70 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 55 57 65 65 77 77 71 64 76 94 100 120 200 MB DIV 59 63 61 49 53 66 79 74 50 49 50 48 40 LAND (KM) 168 136 111 106 102 117 170 222 280 385 550 741 849 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.4 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.0 96.3 97.0 97.6 99.3 101.2 102.9 104.8 106.9 109.2 111.6 114.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 6 7 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 40 42 42 34 43 43 33 21 21 15 9 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 7. 16. 26. 34. 38. 41. 43. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 22. 33. 41. 45. 45. 44. 44. 43. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932010 INVEST 06/15/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932010 INVEST 06/15/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY