* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/16/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 32 33 33 32 31 33 34 35 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 32 33 33 32 31 33 34 34 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 33 32 32 31 31 31 31 31 32 SHEAR (KT) 22 21 21 20 25 28 25 26 25 29 23 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 -3 -1 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 250 261 270 275 267 286 266 280 271 290 263 271 252 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 140 143 147 151 153 155 153 151 149 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 136 136 138 143 146 147 147 144 143 140 137 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 53 51 55 58 59 57 61 58 63 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -22 -26 -28 -24 -19 -17 0 3 13 18 34 41 200 MB DIV -5 -2 -16 -6 -1 -8 24 1 15 -9 4 18 22 LAND (KM) 1150 1129 1111 1107 1091 924 794 721 515 313 128 8 15 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.5 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.8 50.0 51.1 52.2 54.4 56.7 59.0 60.9 62.8 64.6 66.5 68.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 42 46 60 61 68 80 65 74 82 80 66 68 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -16. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 3. 4. 5. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/16/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 06/16/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/16/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY