* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922010 06/16/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 30 32 32 32 32 29 28 23 21 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 30 32 32 32 32 29 28 23 21 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 14 13 13 13 10 11 10 11 18 23 16 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 2 0 -1 1 0 2 -2 9 -1 SHEAR DIR 83 99 117 113 105 92 117 132 112 126 123 131 136 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.7 26.4 26.3 25.8 25.3 25.1 25.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 141 139 137 130 127 127 122 117 115 121 126 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 69 69 65 62 63 60 58 58 56 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 10 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 43 32 31 40 50 49 58 68 59 50 39 36 200 MB DIV 43 39 39 66 76 50 32 12 10 12 17 -1 0 LAND (KM) 458 470 487 507 538 653 749 839 980 1174 1361 1583 1794 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.3 16.2 15.9 15.5 15.0 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.2 106.8 107.6 108.3 110.1 111.9 113.9 116.1 118.4 120.8 123.3 125.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 39 34 29 22 18 10 4 5 0 0 0 0 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 4. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 4. 3. -2. -4. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922010 INVEST 06/16/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922010 INVEST 06/16/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED