* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932010 06/16/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 31 35 39 50 60 67 70 67 64 61 58 V (KT) LAND 25 29 31 35 39 50 60 67 70 67 64 61 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 47 50 51 49 46 42 SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 4 2 1 7 8 12 17 13 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 -1 12 3 3 SHEAR DIR 14 20 318 327 341 86 105 125 97 129 126 126 137 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.4 28.6 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.3 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 166 164 162 158 150 143 138 132 127 126 125 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -51.1 -51.9 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 9 11 7 9 5 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 81 80 78 79 81 77 79 74 74 73 74 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 57 67 67 77 83 83 93 79 103 107 128 154 200 MB DIV 61 56 49 48 85 85 88 58 60 47 79 64 81 LAND (KM) 126 107 100 92 88 122 164 211 304 413 614 758 916 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.8 16.7 16.6 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 95.9 96.4 96.9 97.7 98.4 100.1 101.9 103.7 105.7 107.8 110.1 112.8 115.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 37 43 49 37 26 22 16 10 3 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 24. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 10. 14. 25. 35. 42. 45. 42. 39. 36. 33. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932010 INVEST 06/16/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 85% is 7.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 35% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 5.5 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932010 INVEST 06/16/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED