* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/16/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 27 27 29 32 38 42 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 27 26 26 27 27 29 32 38 42 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 26 25 24 24 25 26 27 29 SHEAR (KT) 27 28 31 31 29 30 27 22 22 23 26 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 4 0 -1 0 0 -4 -2 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 274 272 267 275 277 260 281 268 283 262 289 277 291 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 146 147 149 152 157 158 157 155 152 152 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 142 143 146 148 152 152 150 149 146 145 146 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 56 55 52 54 54 58 61 59 64 60 65 65 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -31 -27 -18 -15 -6 3 2 31 34 45 68 63 200 MB DIV -27 -9 -6 1 -14 8 6 14 6 18 12 24 30 LAND (KM) 1017 1019 974 883 801 675 622 435 259 122 147 105 43 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.8 16.8 16.9 16.9 17.3 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 50.8 52.0 53.1 54.2 55.3 57.6 59.9 61.9 63.8 65.9 68.1 70.2 72.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 59 66 72 77 76 83 103 95 87 95 90 99 95 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 20. 24. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -13. -16. -19. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 2. 8. 12. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/16/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 06/16/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/16/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY