* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022010 06/16/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 43 51 57 59 58 54 50 44 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 43 51 57 59 58 54 50 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 34 33 30 26 22 SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 5 5 7 5 6 2 7 4 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 1 -4 -2 0 5 5 5 5 11 SHEAR DIR 7 23 29 329 318 339 353 19 326 35 46 189 294 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.3 28.3 27.3 26.6 25.2 23.0 21.7 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 166 167 166 164 163 157 147 137 130 116 93 79 72 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -51.8 -52.7 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 8 11 8 8 4 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 81 83 84 82 79 76 73 72 66 64 54 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 57 61 64 72 72 79 68 55 40 31 26 21 200 MB DIV 39 60 97 91 82 66 43 20 6 11 -4 9 -11 LAND (KM) 148 86 52 34 23 27 50 39 117 279 306 357 422 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.2 21.0 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 95.3 96.0 96.7 97.5 98.3 100.0 101.8 103.7 105.9 108.2 110.6 112.8 114.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 40 32 41 21 4 9 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 24. 30. 32. 32. 29. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 18. 26. 32. 35. 33. 29. 25. 19. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022010 TWO 06/16/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022010 TWO 06/16/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY