* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922010 06/16/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 28 30 34 36 39 43 41 43 43 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 28 30 34 36 39 43 41 43 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 21 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 SHEAR (KT) 14 15 15 14 13 13 17 12 13 21 23 28 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 97 100 107 109 102 99 101 93 87 92 91 87 97 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 141 140 138 132 134 137 137 135 135 134 134 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 75 72 70 72 68 66 65 68 70 73 71 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 9 10 9 10 11 11 12 14 11 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 23 17 27 45 44 45 62 80 91 98 90 86 87 200 MB DIV 57 47 74 81 71 67 40 30 46 60 16 -12 -6 LAND (KM) 467 468 476 503 539 659 824 957 1160 1399 1619 1776 1842 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.9 15.7 15.2 14.4 13.4 12.4 11.8 11.7 LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.1 106.6 107.4 108.2 110.0 111.9 114.1 116.4 118.7 120.6 122.1 123.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 8 8 9 10 12 12 11 9 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 41 35 30 24 19 12 11 20 26 25 19 19 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 10. 7. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 14. 18. 16. 18. 18. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922010 INVEST 06/16/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922010 INVEST 06/16/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY