* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022010 06/16/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 48 57 65 67 69 68 69 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 48 57 65 67 69 68 69 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 37 41 45 48 50 51 51 SHEAR (KT) 4 4 3 6 7 7 4 4 3 7 9 6 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -4 -5 -1 0 -3 5 8 7 12 4 SHEAR DIR 46 35 18 344 353 21 17 279 232 174 164 170 138 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.4 27.8 27.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 165 163 163 160 157 153 150 147 141 137 131 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 700-500 MB RH 80 82 82 81 79 78 74 73 71 69 67 66 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 54 58 64 64 61 56 56 37 60 83 101 111 200 MB DIV 71 96 85 87 91 88 52 56 50 70 105 89 79 LAND (KM) 102 77 74 71 67 76 103 122 143 207 253 319 353 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.5 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 95.7 96.2 96.7 97.1 97.5 98.6 99.9 100.8 101.5 102.6 104.3 105.8 107.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 5 6 5 4 4 7 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 41 40 41 49 36 32 28 13 22 17 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 25. 33. 37. 40. 43. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 23. 32. 40. 42. 44. 43. 44. 42. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022010 TWO 06/16/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 5.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022010 TWO 06/16/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED