* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022010 06/17/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 41 52 62 68 71 73 74 77 77 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 41 52 62 68 71 73 74 77 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 44 48 51 54 57 60 SHEAR (KT) 6 7 6 6 8 4 4 10 11 4 8 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -5 -5 3 0 -3 0 -1 2 4 4 SHEAR DIR 20 16 20 21 42 12 10 310 360 15 57 120 113 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 164 163 162 159 155 152 147 143 139 136 132 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -51.6 -52.7 -51.6 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 9 8 10 8 11 8 10 8 6 700-500 MB RH 85 83 82 81 83 78 77 74 71 74 68 70 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 52 64 71 63 56 45 39 30 65 97 95 96 200 MB DIV 93 78 84 87 107 73 70 51 47 40 38 83 77 LAND (KM) 67 64 62 59 56 78 112 131 176 196 261 344 428 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 96.3 96.8 97.2 97.7 98.1 99.1 100.1 101.0 102.1 103.3 104.8 106.3 107.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 41 40 42 46 42 35 31 23 22 19 16 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 25. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 27. 37. 43. 46. 48. 49. 52. 52. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022010 TWO 06/17/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 82% is 7.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 49% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 31% is 5.4 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022010 TWO 06/17/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED