* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922010 06/17/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 36 38 41 42 40 45 43 42 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 36 38 41 42 40 45 43 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 21 21 21 21 22 22 23 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 14 16 19 19 14 24 28 27 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 3 2 0 2 2 -2 -3 -7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 105 126 106 90 94 93 105 85 98 83 81 77 76 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 141 140 137 136 140 140 142 139 136 134 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -51.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -52.0 -52.9 -52.3 -53.0 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 73 73 75 72 73 72 70 72 72 77 75 73 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 10 11 11 12 12 11 14 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 14 23 29 39 37 55 51 77 98 99 105 103 108 200 MB DIV 77 78 74 74 78 41 51 50 49 38 52 23 11 LAND (KM) 477 494 517 534 552 629 769 939 1081 1267 1396 1446 1420 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.4 14.9 14.4 13.5 12.9 12.7 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.2 106.7 107.4 108.0 109.3 110.9 112.9 115.0 116.8 118.0 118.5 118.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 6 7 6 7 9 10 10 8 5 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 36 30 22 19 16 26 33 41 37 37 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 8. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 16. 17. 15. 20. 18. 17. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922010 INVEST 06/17/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922010 INVEST 06/17/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY