* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022010 06/17/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 49 57 61 63 64 65 67 65 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 49 57 61 63 64 65 67 65 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 32 36 38 39 40 40 41 42 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 13 10 9 10 14 16 16 10 6 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -6 -4 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 6 0 6 SHEAR DIR 32 32 28 48 38 4 350 346 1 23 87 127 138 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.2 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 162 160 159 155 151 145 139 134 131 127 124 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -51.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 6 4 700-500 MB RH 83 83 81 80 79 76 75 70 70 61 65 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 63 71 72 64 54 49 30 46 47 76 68 77 200 MB DIV 78 80 90 100 88 59 44 41 21 34 5 26 61 LAND (KM) 49 47 45 51 58 80 104 144 134 191 242 339 448 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.6 98.1 98.6 99.1 100.3 101.3 102.5 103.7 105.0 106.2 107.5 108.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 39 41 45 44 38 27 25 9 17 4 9 6 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 8. 16. 24. 30. 34. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 24. 32. 36. 38. 39. 40. 42. 40. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022010 TWO 06/17/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022010 TWO 06/17/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED