* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922010 06/17/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 26 25 22 19 17 16 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 26 25 22 19 17 16 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 14 17 15 13 12 14 11 12 17 15 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 0 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 4 7 SHEAR DIR 106 94 87 92 111 103 120 90 86 73 104 161 173 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.0 24.4 24.1 24.4 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 136 134 130 123 120 121 113 107 104 106 107 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 74 75 75 71 74 70 71 67 66 62 58 51 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 39 50 46 55 69 71 90 107 106 100 85 81 200 MB DIV 64 61 67 72 61 12 23 8 -1 10 24 -28 -25 LAND (KM) 392 405 404 422 454 571 647 737 890 1049 1199 1375 1522 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.3 106.9 107.6 108.3 109.9 111.7 113.8 116.1 118.3 120.4 122.5 124.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 22 17 13 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922010 INVEST 06/17/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922010 INVEST 06/17/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED