* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022010 06/17/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 54 56 56 55 55 56 56 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 48 54 56 56 55 55 56 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 31 30 29 29 29 29 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 10 16 17 21 24 20 14 5 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -1 3 -2 -5 -4 0 1 3 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 31 43 50 28 6 17 9 13 30 47 356 16 268 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.4 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 158 156 153 147 141 136 134 131 125 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -51.6 -52.2 -52.6 -51.7 -52.7 -52.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 8 7 8 5 7 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 84 81 80 80 78 79 74 73 76 72 73 64 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 73 76 73 67 58 45 26 28 45 39 40 28 200 MB DIV 80 87 87 67 49 75 33 23 17 24 21 37 13 LAND (KM) 35 43 51 64 77 116 123 185 280 375 493 623 677 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 98.1 98.8 99.4 100.1 100.7 102.0 103.3 104.6 106.0 107.5 109.0 110.5 112.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 40 30 29 19 17 18 11 13 10 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 29. 31. 31. 30. 30. 31. 31. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022010 TWO 06/17/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022010 TWO 06/17/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY