* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * THREE EP032010 06/17/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 32 32 31 31 28 26 27 26 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 32 32 31 31 28 26 27 26 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 31 30 27 24 22 21 20 18 17 16 SHEAR (KT) 14 19 20 19 23 22 13 11 16 20 16 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -5 -1 0 0 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 84 85 87 98 92 95 100 75 78 90 113 68 87 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.4 26.2 25.8 24.8 24.5 24.5 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 138 136 135 132 127 126 122 112 108 108 113 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 79 77 75 75 76 75 76 74 78 72 66 59 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 36 43 47 53 62 59 101 122 94 90 85 200 MB DIV 64 66 79 73 35 56 22 6 -10 39 4 -2 -22 LAND (KM) 403 400 403 413 427 498 636 729 821 989 1170 1336 1514 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.0 16.7 16.5 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 105.8 106.3 106.8 107.3 108.5 110.2 112.3 114.6 117.1 119.5 121.6 123.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 5 5 5 7 9 11 12 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 26 21 18 16 12 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 17. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -4. -3. -4. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032010 THREE 06/17/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032010 THREE 06/17/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY