* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922010 06/17/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 35 35 35 34 31 28 29 28 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 35 35 35 34 31 28 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 32 31 29 26 24 23 22 21 19 18 SHEAR (KT) 16 18 19 19 21 24 16 14 16 20 18 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 1 0 2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 84 84 84 98 90 95 93 71 73 86 115 70 91 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.4 24.8 24.6 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 136 137 135 134 130 126 118 111 109 112 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.5 -52.4 -51.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 77 75 74 76 75 76 75 81 75 70 62 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 25 35 32 37 44 49 55 50 91 116 101 91 83 200 MB DIV 61 66 80 76 40 61 26 20 -7 41 17 3 -22 LAND (KM) 450 451 452 463 476 536 648 763 809 923 1110 1264 1436 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.8 16.6 16.4 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.3 106.7 107.1 107.5 108.5 109.8 111.6 113.7 116.0 118.4 120.5 122.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 6 7 10 11 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 36 30 25 22 19 16 14 5 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 18. 20. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -2. -1. -2. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922010 INVEST 06/17/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922010 INVEST 06/17/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY