* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/17/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 24 25 26 28 35 42 49 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 22 22 24 25 26 25 30 37 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 20 21 23 26 32 35 SHEAR (KT) 36 36 31 29 24 27 24 25 14 21 20 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 3 0 3 -3 1 3 0 -3 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 268 270 273 275 273 271 274 280 278 275 270 270 265 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 159 159 157 153 152 150 153 154 156 159 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 151 154 153 150 147 144 143 144 144 145 147 148 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 52 49 51 54 54 53 58 57 61 60 60 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -21 -21 -18 -9 -9 30 35 47 56 57 54 61 200 MB DIV 1 4 11 10 20 8 15 9 19 10 26 20 34 LAND (KM) 637 618 570 454 339 146 56 69 15 -6 7 80 33 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 58.5 59.6 60.7 61.8 62.8 64.8 66.9 68.9 71.0 72.6 74.3 75.7 77.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 101 106 82 73 99 86 77 85 79 55 89 86 96 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -11. -13. -16. -17. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 10. 17. 24. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/17/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 92.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 06/17/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/17/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY