* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032010 06/17/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 48 49 51 49 48 43 42 41 37 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 48 49 51 49 48 43 42 41 37 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 45 44 41 38 36 35 34 33 32 31 SHEAR (KT) 15 18 23 23 22 25 15 16 15 14 8 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 1 0 2 0 0 2 3 0 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 78 65 83 91 90 82 79 67 68 78 73 113 126 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.2 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 140 140 139 138 135 130 127 126 126 124 117 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.4 -52.0 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 79 79 79 77 80 79 77 76 71 70 64 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 10 9 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 24 29 34 42 44 58 56 58 56 74 65 54 38 200 MB DIV 65 95 81 62 56 65 38 35 46 42 34 13 -20 LAND (KM) 435 425 416 430 446 493 552 628 718 761 834 898 963 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.2 16.2 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 105.7 105.7 106.0 106.3 107.3 108.6 109.8 111.0 112.3 113.6 114.8 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 3 4 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 30 29 28 24 17 10 5 2 6 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 1. -1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 11. 9. 8. 3. 2. 1. -3. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032010 BLAS 06/17/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032010 BLAS 06/17/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED