* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/18/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 23 24 26 26 28 31 36 43 48 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 23 24 26 26 25 30 35 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 21 21 23 23 28 30 30 28 SHEAR (KT) 36 32 30 29 30 27 27 22 20 22 20 22 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 2 1 1 -1 3 2 -2 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 268 274 270 272 268 282 270 289 279 292 269 274 267 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 159 157 155 152 148 150 152 156 159 161 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 153 154 151 149 144 140 141 142 145 147 148 149 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 55 50 57 56 60 60 60 60 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -17 -14 -7 -10 12 23 39 57 59 43 57 47 200 MB DIV 4 8 9 17 0 9 22 2 18 29 29 32 15 LAND (KM) 616 602 483 368 253 49 54 17 -45 20 47 -22 -22 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 59.3 60.4 61.5 62.6 63.6 65.7 67.7 69.7 71.4 73.0 74.5 76.0 77.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 108 107 19 102 86 74 74 77 75 98 93 81 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 30. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -12. -14. -18. -19. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 18. 23. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/18/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 06/18/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/18/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY