* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032010 06/18/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 43 44 46 45 41 38 36 33 29 25 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 43 44 46 45 41 38 36 33 29 25 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 41 40 37 35 34 32 30 29 27 25 SHEAR (KT) 18 20 19 17 20 15 15 14 18 10 5 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 6 0 0 3 1 0 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 73 80 81 79 74 65 41 40 75 102 117 198 216 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.5 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.4 24.8 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 137 136 135 133 128 124 123 121 117 111 108 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.2 -51.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 3 1 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 76 77 80 76 74 71 69 62 58 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 31 33 34 42 52 60 62 73 79 81 72 51 50 200 MB DIV 100 85 48 30 43 38 43 13 37 31 11 -18 -7 LAND (KM) 439 457 467 476 489 513 610 695 746 825 923 1083 1249 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.7 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.6 107.0 107.4 107.7 108.4 109.9 111.5 113.0 114.5 116.0 118.1 120.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 8 7 7 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 26 24 21 18 14 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 5. 1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032010 BLAS 06/18/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032010 BLAS 06/18/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED