* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/18/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 28 31 34 36 40 45 52 55 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 28 31 34 29 36 41 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 24 24 28 31 28 28 SHEAR (KT) 30 29 29 30 29 21 25 14 21 18 16 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 0 0 -2 1 1 2 -2 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 273 271 273 270 279 285 275 268 257 251 248 251 228 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 157 155 152 150 151 154 158 159 163 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 154 153 151 148 144 142 141 144 147 148 150 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 52 54 58 56 59 59 62 61 64 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -13 -5 -7 -6 39 42 59 67 70 59 69 58 200 MB DIV 8 7 20 0 7 19 28 17 29 34 38 51 62 LAND (KM) 590 481 369 260 153 55 56 22 -13 30 44 -20 -26 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.8 19.4 20.3 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 60.6 61.7 62.7 63.8 64.8 66.8 68.8 70.6 72.2 73.8 75.3 76.9 78.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 112 54 103 88 87 77 82 80 50 77 89 68 86 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 20. 27. 30. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/18/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 88.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 06/18/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/18/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY