* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/18/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 26 28 31 32 36 42 51 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 26 28 31 31 35 41 50 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 22 21 22 23 26 29 32 36 SHEAR (KT) 33 31 34 31 26 24 23 18 16 19 15 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 4 0 0 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 270 266 262 271 279 261 288 272 276 266 272 262 281 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 157 156 154 152 153 154 156 160 161 163 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 155 153 152 149 146 145 145 146 149 150 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 53 54 53 55 56 54 56 58 61 63 60 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -10 -11 -3 12 36 47 61 64 70 57 59 47 200 MB DIV -1 14 3 2 14 24 3 22 29 35 24 34 30 LAND (KM) 444 330 223 146 111 108 23 24 21 78 49 129 139 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.9 19.4 20.2 20.6 LONG(DEG W) 62.2 63.4 64.5 65.7 66.9 69.1 71.2 72.9 74.7 76.3 77.9 79.4 80.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 12 11 11 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 110 92 83 95 89 92 89 96 92 85 97 99 98 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 7. 11. 17. 26. 33. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/18/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 93.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 06/18/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/18/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY