* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032010 06/18/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 33 32 28 26 24 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 33 32 28 26 24 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 30 29 27 25 23 22 21 20 19 18 SHEAR (KT) 15 12 15 13 11 11 9 11 9 5 2 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -1 -2 0 0 0 -4 -1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 67 67 56 69 76 33 57 68 34 37 28 160 198 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.7 25.1 24.6 24.5 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 133 130 123 121 121 119 113 108 108 110 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 80 79 81 82 82 77 75 68 66 57 54 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 16 15 15 14 13 14 12 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 20 29 39 41 44 54 58 50 52 47 20 8 -6 200 MB DIV 36 24 57 51 25 30 9 15 20 10 -47 -22 -22 LAND (KM) 443 449 456 482 516 628 682 740 831 951 1037 1177 1359 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 17.0 16.7 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.4 107.6 108.2 108.8 110.4 111.8 113.3 114.9 116.5 117.8 119.6 121.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 16 13 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -11. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032010 BLAS 06/18/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032010 BLAS 06/18/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY