* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942010 06/18/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 57 66 70 75 80 82 79 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 46 57 66 70 75 80 82 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 32 34 36 38 39 41 43 46 47 SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 10 9 1 10 11 11 13 16 21 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -5 -3 0 -5 0 0 2 -1 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 360 359 349 334 314 268 207 189 184 131 142 129 123 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 165 163 160 158 155 153 150 149 147 143 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 9 8 9 8 8 7 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 74 72 74 74 74 69 71 68 65 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 9 11 11 14 17 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -10 -12 -13 -11 -7 4 4 12 33 48 53 52 200 MB DIV 37 32 29 -3 17 35 31 52 78 78 79 88 81 LAND (KM) 298 283 288 296 304 355 420 490 557 679 815 1010 1141 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.3 97.0 97.8 98.5 100.1 101.8 103.5 105.5 107.7 110.2 112.8 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 13 12 16 15 44 46 49 43 44 36 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 25. 33. 38. 42. 45. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 9. 13. 18. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 21. 32. 41. 45. 50. 55. 57. 54. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942010 INVEST 06/18/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942010 INVEST 06/18/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED