* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032010 06/19/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 45 44 46 40 38 36 32 29 25 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 45 44 46 40 38 36 32 29 25 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 45 43 40 37 35 33 32 30 27 25 SHEAR (KT) 14 15 11 8 10 9 8 9 6 3 7 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -2 0 -2 -1 2 2 -4 -3 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 46 70 60 53 60 67 32 37 45 76 131 145 164 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.1 26.1 25.8 25.2 24.6 24.5 24.6 24.9 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 129 127 124 124 121 114 108 107 108 112 114 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 82 82 83 80 75 73 69 64 56 52 47 42 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 14 15 13 13 11 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 23 29 37 49 51 55 58 64 61 44 17 -4 -14 200 MB DIV 23 22 26 26 42 -3 3 9 3 -23 -12 -25 -38 LAND (KM) 490 530 572 632 692 734 809 914 1037 1157 1279 1436 1603 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.0 16.7 16.3 16.0 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.8 109.4 110.2 111.0 112.7 114.4 116.1 117.8 119.3 120.6 122.4 124.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 9 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -1. -5. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 1. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -20. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032010 BLAS 06/19/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032010 BLAS 06/19/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY