* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942010 06/19/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 34 37 45 55 63 69 68 68 63 58 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 34 37 45 55 63 69 68 68 63 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 33 34 36 37 37 35 32 29 SHEAR (KT) 10 13 9 9 5 9 11 18 15 17 18 17 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -7 -8 -5 3 -3 -1 0 5 4 3 5 0 SHEAR DIR 1 343 314 313 298 213 185 187 171 164 155 146 158 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.3 27.7 26.9 26.0 25.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 165 163 161 157 152 147 142 133 124 121 111 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 9 10 8 10 9 8 6 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 78 73 70 72 73 70 72 62 64 57 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 7 9 10 13 13 15 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -19 -19 -18 -9 -9 4 4 27 2 -20 -42 -39 200 MB DIV 33 20 5 11 29 16 24 25 48 28 30 17 9 LAND (KM) 245 234 231 229 240 289 326 369 452 554 680 717 836 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.4 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 96.0 96.8 97.5 98.3 99.1 100.9 102.6 104.5 106.7 109.0 111.3 113.6 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 14 10 14 23 16 26 35 24 12 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 25. 31. 35. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 12. 15. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 20. 30. 38. 44. 43. 43. 38. 33. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942010 INVEST 06/19/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942010 INVEST 06/19/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY