* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/19/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 36 39 43 47 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 30 29 35 38 31 29 28 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 22 20 23 25 24 26 26 30 SHEAR (KT) 40 36 28 29 33 20 22 19 17 17 21 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -1 1 0 1 4 0 3 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 272 281 278 266 276 282 275 267 260 259 263 239 256 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 152 152 151 153 154 157 161 161 164 164 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 144 144 143 144 144 146 148 147 149 147 144 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 50 54 53 52 52 58 62 61 61 63 63 61 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -10 6 24 24 33 57 58 73 49 58 47 43 25 200 MB DIV -12 18 30 25 23 29 20 70 41 51 58 37 0 LAND (KM) 133 100 94 96 119 2 -10 34 23 -15 -34 -22 21 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.9 19.6 20.5 21.2 22.1 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 65.4 66.5 67.5 68.5 69.5 71.3 72.8 74.3 75.6 77.0 78.2 79.2 79.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 90 86 82 86 91 87 58 88 82 0 87 90 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 30. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -14. -14. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 22. 28. 27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/19/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 87.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 06/19/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/19/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY