* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032010 06/19/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 45 44 44 41 40 35 31 26 24 19 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 45 44 44 41 40 35 31 26 24 19 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 45 43 39 37 35 33 30 27 24 22 SHEAR (KT) 16 12 9 12 11 8 10 5 6 2 5 4 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -3 0 0 3 -1 0 2 -1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 54 60 43 51 58 45 49 19 327 246 203 134 183 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.4 24.7 24.4 24.4 24.7 25.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 126 124 122 122 117 109 106 106 109 113 112 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 83 82 79 75 74 73 67 62 55 52 47 46 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 15 15 16 14 13 12 11 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 27 32 38 41 49 57 57 75 58 42 24 3 0 200 MB DIV 17 21 21 38 8 2 17 -2 -33 -25 -17 -44 -22 LAND (KM) 523 583 647 694 698 755 878 1005 1092 1218 1374 1530 1678 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.7 16.3 16.0 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.6 110.4 111.2 112.0 113.6 115.6 117.3 118.7 120.2 121.9 123.6 125.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 7 7 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 11 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -10. -14. -19. -21. -26. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032010 BLAS 06/19/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032010 BLAS 06/19/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY