* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942010 06/19/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 36 42 48 51 54 55 51 47 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 36 42 48 51 54 55 51 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 24 22 20 17 SHEAR (KT) 7 3 6 6 10 12 21 16 22 22 20 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 2 2 -2 -1 0 0 0 6 5 3 SHEAR DIR 25 315 203 183 190 191 159 159 145 151 153 156 175 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.3 27.7 26.9 26.0 25.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 163 161 157 152 147 142 133 124 121 111 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 8 5 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 74 70 68 72 69 73 68 64 58 53 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 4 4 7 7 8 8 12 15 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -23 -18 -7 0 6 18 4 5 -28 -28 -19 -19 200 MB DIV 33 -2 -16 0 29 20 38 38 27 20 2 0 9 LAND (KM) 292 261 231 229 240 289 326 369 452 554 680 717 836 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.9 17.4 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 96.6 97.1 97.5 98.3 99.1 100.9 102.6 104.5 106.7 109.0 111.3 113.6 115.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 10 14 23 16 26 35 24 12 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 24. 31. 35. 37. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. 12. 16. 16. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 30. 26. 22. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942010 INVEST 06/19/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942010 INVEST 06/19/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY