* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922010 06/19/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 37 41 42 46 51 58 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 34 36 40 41 45 49 56 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 27 28 31 34 37 40 38 SHEAR (KT) 36 28 28 35 29 19 22 19 20 23 22 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 3 3 -1 -2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 281 279 267 276 282 268 280 272 262 252 264 229 238 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 152 153 155 156 160 163 162 164 163 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 146 144 145 145 146 146 148 151 147 147 145 140 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 52 53 50 52 53 56 58 59 58 60 57 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 4 22 23 29 42 55 54 61 55 65 42 55 42 200 MB DIV 16 28 24 19 18 15 32 43 39 64 31 12 12 LAND (KM) 91 118 103 93 15 18 47 86 43 108 80 11 3 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.5 21.1 21.9 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 67.0 68.1 69.2 70.3 71.3 73.1 74.9 76.5 78.1 79.4 80.4 81.1 81.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 85 86 90 92 90 97 91 86 104 101 101 101 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -8. -11. -14. -15. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 12. 16. 17. 21. 26. 33. 37. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 06/19/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 88.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 06/19/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL922010 INVEST 06/19/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY