* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032010 06/19/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 58 57 54 51 44 33 24 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 58 57 54 51 44 33 24 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 58 57 55 49 43 39 34 29 24 19 15 SHEAR (KT) 12 9 11 10 11 9 2 9 15 14 15 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 -1 1 0 -2 -3 -1 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 69 37 46 37 35 51 47 251 261 239 233 219 224 SST (C) 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.7 24.6 23.6 23.5 23.7 23.5 23.2 22.9 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 125 123 121 110 99 98 100 97 94 90 85 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 84 79 73 73 71 65 60 51 47 43 38 34 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 16 16 16 15 15 15 15 13 11 10 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 33 34 40 50 59 76 87 100 87 73 49 24 17 200 MB DIV 23 22 40 8 0 10 10 3 -16 -18 -19 -25 -23 LAND (KM) 579 644 691 700 732 867 1017 1202 1422 1580 1721 1835 1910 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.7 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.3 111.3 112.5 113.7 116.3 119.0 121.6 124.2 126.4 128.3 130.0 131.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 12 12 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -11. -22. -31. -39. -47. -54. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032010 BLAS 06/19/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032010 BLAS 06/19/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY