* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042010 06/19/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 49 58 63 65 65 66 66 63 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 49 58 63 65 65 66 66 63 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 40 43 45 47 49 50 51 53 54 SHEAR (KT) 1 4 7 10 14 19 21 24 22 15 16 16 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 3 -2 -6 -3 -1 1 5 4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 105 115 132 143 145 145 152 159 166 154 157 172 247 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 163 162 160 159 158 156 156 155 153 152 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.3 -52.7 -51.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 9 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 75 71 69 72 75 72 77 71 74 71 72 66 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -13 -6 0 2 7 7 18 25 52 69 73 81 200 MB DIV 7 -7 -8 25 24 40 38 69 94 84 72 94 80 LAND (KM) 331 359 386 402 428 494 543 587 629 663 706 761 800 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 97.0 97.6 98.2 99.0 99.7 101.2 102.3 103.3 104.2 105.2 106.3 107.6 108.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 19 21 19 28 56 61 56 51 48 56 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 31. 35. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 19. 28. 33. 35. 35. 36. 36. 33. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 FOUR 06/19/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 FOUR 06/19/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY