* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032010 06/19/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 56 55 52 48 41 31 24 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 56 55 52 48 41 31 24 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 57 55 53 47 43 38 34 29 25 21 18 SHEAR (KT) 10 13 15 15 13 8 5 9 12 9 8 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -3 -1 4 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 43 42 46 50 44 34 289 241 218 197 187 168 174 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.2 24.6 24.4 24.5 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 124 123 122 115 108 106 107 112 112 110 111 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 78 74 74 72 71 65 62 58 52 47 43 38 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 17 17 16 15 14 12 9 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 38 44 47 54 63 63 85 83 65 40 15 3 -23 200 MB DIV 22 30 8 0 -7 9 -21 -31 -19 -16 -43 -24 -27 LAND (KM) 621 688 703 725 761 869 1017 1153 1321 1491 1671 1825 1959 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.5 16.2 16.1 15.9 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 111.0 111.8 112.8 113.7 115.7 117.6 119.5 121.4 123.3 125.4 127.2 128.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -14. -24. -31. -36. -41. -46. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032010 BLAS 06/19/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032010 BLAS 06/19/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY