* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/19/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 53 60 66 73 80 86 89 89 87 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 53 60 66 73 80 86 89 89 87 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 47 50 52 54 55 57 60 64 69 73 78 SHEAR (KT) 10 13 18 22 23 20 18 15 11 9 3 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 -5 -6 0 1 4 1 6 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 133 124 133 132 139 132 125 135 132 133 114 85 84 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 163 162 162 160 159 157 157 156 154 153 153 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 6 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 69 66 74 75 71 77 76 77 74 77 71 67 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 2 4 5 5 7 10 14 14 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -8 0 4 3 5 9 15 25 36 40 45 55 200 MB DIV -5 -13 28 36 31 61 62 75 77 87 110 96 97 LAND (KM) 386 409 433 456 485 547 606 646 675 710 760 815 861 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.3 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 97.6 98.3 98.9 99.6 100.3 101.7 102.8 103.7 104.7 105.8 107.1 108.3 109.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 4 5 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 20 18 17 24 56 59 54 41 47 57 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 21. 26. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 18. 18. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 20. 26. 33. 40. 46. 49. 49. 47. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/19/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/19/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED