* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032010 06/20/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 43 41 40 35 28 21 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 43 41 40 35 28 21 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 45 42 39 34 31 28 25 21 18 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 12 9 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 0 3 1 -4 0 0 1 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 40 38 45 38 52 12 298 291 219 220 172 207 168 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.5 24.7 24.2 24.1 24.3 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 121 118 110 105 103 105 109 108 105 105 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 75 71 70 66 63 56 53 49 45 39 39 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 17 15 13 11 10 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 45 49 53 58 63 80 86 74 59 43 23 14 -17 200 MB DIV 30 2 -6 -3 15 8 18 -31 -42 -46 -46 -32 11 LAND (KM) 671 683 707 747 798 928 1065 1214 1360 1546 1740 1881 2004 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.3 17.1 17.0 16.7 16.4 16.2 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.9 112.8 113.8 114.8 116.7 118.7 120.6 122.4 124.4 126.6 128.3 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 10 10 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -15. -22. -29. -35. -38. -42. -45. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032010 BLAS 06/20/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032010 BLAS 06/20/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY