* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/20/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 66 71 80 88 94 99 99 101 97 95 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 66 71 80 88 94 99 99 101 97 95 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 61 65 68 71 73 76 80 83 85 88 92 SHEAR (KT) 10 13 18 18 15 18 15 13 11 10 7 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -4 2 0 4 1 6 1 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 114 123 128 134 122 134 122 140 119 113 82 76 50 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 163 161 161 160 159 158 157 155 154 155 154 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.3 -52.6 -51.6 -52.1 -51.0 -51.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 74 77 74 76 79 77 80 75 76 73 70 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 6 7 9 12 13 17 17 18 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR -6 3 10 9 12 16 32 42 52 58 60 66 55 200 MB DIV 8 25 34 37 57 57 79 78 116 124 94 82 70 LAND (KM) 421 446 480 507 536 594 651 700 730 778 838 898 978 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.6 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 98.3 99.0 99.7 100.4 101.0 102.3 103.6 104.8 105.8 106.9 108.1 109.6 111.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 20 17 16 17 40 60 54 35 32 60 53 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 23. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 20. 19. 22. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 21. 30. 38. 44. 49. 49. 51. 47. 45. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/20/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/20/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY